Grinnell Poll: Biden, Trump Tied in 2024 Matchup

President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump are tied in a theoretical matchup in the 2024 election, according to a Grinnell College National Poll released on Wednesday.

If the presidential election were held today, 40% of likely voters would vote for Biden, 40% would choose Trump, and 14% said they would pick another candidate. Neither Biden nor Trump has announced his candidacy for 2024.

Among independents, Trump holds a 45% to 28% advantage. This signifies a massive shift in that category, as 2020 exit polling showed Biden won independent voters by a 54% to 41% margin.

“The president has time to turn his political fortunes around,” said Grinnell College National Poll Director Peter Hanson. “But if it doesn’t happen soon, Democrats are likely to face a serious reckoning in the 2022 midterm elections.”

Other results from the survey included:

  • Among Republicans, 80% support Trump, while 87% of Democats back Biden.
  • Twenty percent of independents said they would vote for “someone else” and 4% said they would not cast a ballot.
  • Only 37% approve of the job Biden is doing as president, while 50% disapprove.
  • The president’s lowest marks come from his handling of immigration (58% disapprove and 27% approve) and the economy (53% disapprove and 36% approve).

Only 36% of Americans believe the economy will be in a stronger position 12 months from now, which is an 11% drop from March.

“Right now, the math is simple: A majority of Americans believe the economy will be doing worse in 12 months than it is today, and that pessimism is keeping President Biden’s approval ratings in the basement,” Hanson said. 

The Grinnell poll surveyed 745 people between Oct. 13-17. It has a plus/minus 3.6 percentage-point margin of error. 

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