Poll: Rubio Holds Slim Lead Over Demings in Florida Senate Race

In the first major poll pitting Florida Sen. Marco Rubio against Democrat challenger Rep. Val Demings, the incumbent holds a 48% to 46% advantage, which is within the margin of error, according to a new survey released Wednesday by St. Pete Polls.

Demings filed in June to run against Rubio in next year’s election for the key Senate seat, Florida Politics reported.

Although she first must defeat other Democrats in order to face Rubio, her entrance into the contest largely cleared the primary of other major names.

Other results from the poll include:

  • Rubio has the backing of 81.7%  of Republicans and 14.9% of Democrats, while Demings wins support from 79.4% of Democrats and 13.6% of GOP voters.
  • Independent voters are evenly split, with 46.1% backing Rubio, 45.7% going to Demings, and 8.2% undecided.
  • Among females, 49.5% support Rubio, while only 44% back Demings.
  • However, among males, 48.1% favor Demings, while 46.5% back Rubio.
  • Rubio, who has Cuban heritage, has the backing of  49.3% of the Hispanic vote, while Demings has 45% of that group.
  • Demings, who if she wins would be Florida’s first Black senator, has the support of 76.7% of Black voters, compared to Rubio’s 14.7%.

In another question asked in the poll about a hypothetical matchup between Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Joe Biden in the 2024 presidential race, 48% said they would choose Biden and 47.4% said they would pick Trump.

The poll was conducted from August 16-17 among 2,068 registered Florida voters. The sample of voters that were contacted included random samples of registered voters within the boundaries of the state of Florida. The results have a 2.2% margin of error at a 95% confidence level

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